The outright favourite for the 2011 Tour de France, Alberto Contador has won all six of the last major Tours he has participated in. Contador freely admits, however, that the most recent big race, the Giro d'Italia in May, took a great physical toll and could damage his chances of a fourth Tour de France victory.
On May 29, Contador crossed the Giro's final finish line in Milan to claim the race for a second time in his career with a solid six-minute advantage over closest rival Michele Scarponi of Italy.
However, he was so exhausted by what he described as "the hardest stage race I’ve ever done" that he refused to commit to the Tour de France for a further 10 days. Throughout June, Contador said that his form was as solid as could be expected but that he was still tired from the Giro, and that "racing the Giro is far from being ideal preparation for the Tour".
"My Tour form is incognito," he said after taking bronze in the national championships' time trial and silver in the road race near Castellon in Spain last weekend. "But what made me happiest here was the team work, because in the road race the four riders who will race the Tour for Saxo Bank were a great help.
"I felt good and that's what matters although obviously I'm not going to be in the same shape as the riders who've done the Criterium du Dauphine and the Tour de Suisse."Contador, however, believes the Spanish championships' time trial was a good indication of what he will face in the penultimate stage of the Tour on July 23.
"The time trial route here was similar to the one in the Tour in Grenoble and it went well, so I feel very upbeat," he said. "Neither national race was particularly suited to me in terms of terrain but it was important to come and get some racing miles under my belt."
Thanks to his Giro victory, Contador could become the first rider to take the Tours of Italy and France in the same year since the late Marco Pantani in 1998. He has a good chance to achieve the feat as the route of the Tour once again clearly favours climbers, with four hilltop finishes and a punishing third week in the Alps.
However, the Spaniard will start the Tour with 44 days of racing behind him this season, nearly 50 percent more than he had raced before winning the Tour in 2009 and 2010. The 98th edition of the world's premier cycling event will begin on Saturday and while Contador has several potential challengers other obstacles could stand in the way of a fourth yellow jersey win.
The joy of a third yellow jersey triumph for Contador in 2010 was tempered a month later after he announced he had tested positive for clenbuterol on the race's second rest day.
Almost a year has gone by and, much to the annoyance of the organisers, the final judgement is still pending.
"Obviously we would have liked to have a final ruling before the start of the Tour," lamented Tour director Christina Prudhomme who, nevertheless, said he would be treating Contador as innocent until proven guilty.
Contador's claim that he ingested the banned substance while eating a contaminated steak was accepted by the Spanish authorities, but did not wash with the International Cycling Union nor the World Anti-Doping Agency.
Both appealed the decision to the CAS but, since the Lausanne-based sports court will not deliberate until August, Contador is free to race. Prudhomme admitted he would prefer the world's premier cycling event to start this Saturday without the shadow of an ongoing doping case from last year's edition.
In the fallout, the Tour de France - which has courted plenty of controversy at various times during its past 97 editions - would fall unfavourably under the spotlight. While being tied by the letter of the law as laid down by the International Cycling Union, the World Anti Doping Agency and the Court of Arbitration for Sport, Prudhomme wants things to change.
"Yes, I would shake his hand - just as you would anybody who is awaiting a similar kind of decision," he said. "But the international sports bodies should reflect upon how long it takes to rule on these decisions. I can understand people being baffled by all of this. It has to change."He added: "Obviously we would have liked to have a final ruling before the start of the Tour.
"The CAS declared several times that the case would be resolved before the start of the Tour. Dates had even been mentioned for the hearing, from June 6 to 8. “Contador's representatives naturally wanted a postponement. The referees assigned by the CAS and those assigned by the UCI and the WADA accepted it too.
"That suggests the case is pretty complex. But there's a question mark hanging over things that, naturally, we don't want to be there."The situation has met with a mixed response. Rivals have accepted, somewhat grudglingly, the Spaniard's inclusion while the UCI has called for Contador to be treated as innocent until proven guilty.
Prudhomme says he simply has to abide by the rules. "We have to take a neutral perspective. We're right in the middle of proceedings," added the Frenchman. "Contador has been cleared by his federation and there's an ongoing appeal from the UCI and from the WADA. That's how things stand right now."Contador's main rival this year is two-time runner-up Andy Schleck of Luxembourg, who finished only 39secs behind the Spaniard last year.
However his Leopard team have insisted they will be treating the Spaniard just like any other rival. "Whether Contador is there or not, it doesn't change anything about how competitive we want to be," Leopard-Trek team manager Bryan Nygaard said at the Tour of Switzerland last week.
"The only thing we all want in the Contador case is a clear-cut, solid verdict and some kind of transparency in the decision-making and content."The UCI also says it will treat Contador with respect, although that pledge will have little value if CAS finds the Spaniard guilty and he has to hand back all the wins he pocketed since and including last July.
The psychological burden borne by Contador ultimately failed to wreck his bid to win what was an immensely difficult Giro d'Italia last month. But despite being on course for a rare double, it remains to be seen whether Contador has enough fuel in the tank, both physically and mentally, to go the distance.
In any case Andy Schleck, who lost the race by only 39secs last year, has only one objective. "I'm going there to win the Tour. I've been second twice so this time I want the top step of the podium," the Leopard team's climbing expert said during the Tour of Switzerland last week. If organisers were longing for another Contador v Schleck duel, they should certainly have it - and much more thrown in for good measure.
This year's race has something for everyone, from the sprinters like Britain's Mark Cavendish - the winner of an amazing 15 stages in three editions - to the "punchers" such as Belgian Philippe Gilbert, who are at home on the undulating stages that finish with an uphill sprint.
Yet it's to the climbers that Prudhomme is offering most rewards. Featuring only one individual time trial, a 42.5km ride around Grenoble on the 20th and penultimate stage, the 21-stage race has nine days in which at least one categorised climb appears.
The opening salvos in the yellow jersey battle could come as early as eight and nine in the Massif Central, or the powder kept dry for any one of a trilogy of Pyreneean stages which feature the race's first summit finishes (stages 12 and 14).
If the yellow jersey is still undecided after two hard days in the Alps, it almost certainly will be on stage 19. More than 42km of climbing features as the peloton tackles the legendary Telegraphe and Galibier mountain passes before finishing on the summit of Alpe d'Huez.
The presence of several other bona fide contenders won't make Contador or Schleck's job any easier. Australian Cadel Evans, Italian Ivan Basso, Dutchman Robert Gesink, Belgian Jurgen van den Broeck and Britain's Bradley Wiggins all have the credentials to play a leading role in the race.
Although Contador and Schleck could end up courting their rivals for indirect help as the race goes on, for now Schleck is simply wary of the threat. "I think Gesink will be really good, Cadel will be strong and I believe Ivan Basso will come to the Tour in good shape. Van den Broeck also showed good form in the Dauphine Libere race," said Schleck.